While in the past the strategy of “holding the airdrop” often produced good results, in the second half of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 the situation has changed.
Today the main question for airdrop participants is: should you sell the token immediately or hold it in hopes of growth? To answer this, we first need to understand why new tokens drop so quickly after launch.
Why tokens fall after TGE
1. Mass airdrops and selling pressure
The model of launching projects has changed significantly. Previously tokens were distributed through ICOs or private sales, but now most users receive them through:
- airdrops
- points campaigns
- testnets
- activity farming
This means that thousands of users receive tokens for free and immediately sell them on the market. At the moment of TGE, a huge wave of supply is created that the market simply cannot absorb.
2. Behavior of funds and early investors
Another important factor is the behavior of venture funds. During a bull market, funds are willing to hold tokens for a long time. But in a weak market the situation is different. Funds receive tokens at very low prices and do not want to hold risky assets. Limited liquidity further intensifies the decline.
As a result, some investors begin taking profits directly at TGE. Even if tokens have vesting schedules, a small unlock is enough to create strong selling pressure.
3. Connection with the state of the crypto market
The main reason for this trend in the price of new project tokens is the overall situation in the crypto market. 2025 became a period of declining liquidity, when capital flowed out of altcoins, traders reduced risk, and interest in new tokens decreased.
The beginning of 2026 turned out to be even harder. When the market is weak, investors do not want to buy new tokens. As a result, there is low demand, large supply, and the price falls.
Statistics: how token prices changed after TGE
Below is a sample of projects that launched tokens in the second half of 2025 and early 2026.
Average token decline
If we calculate the average dynamics across this sample, the median decline is about −35%, and more than 70% of tokens are below their TGE price. This means that most projects lose about one third of their value in the first weeks after launch.
| In some cases, the drop is much stronger: | Why some tokens increased: |
| Helios −91% ZenChain −81% Theoriq −81% HeyElsa −71% | STABLE +41% CYSIC +50% Espresso +50% Aztec +9% ROBO +12% |
Because these tokens launched very recently.
In the current market the same scenario often happens. After TGE the price may temporarily rise, then after a few weeks selling pressure begins, and within 1–2 months the price gradually declines. Therefore short-term growth does not indicate long-term strength of the project.
Why the market has become like this
There are several structural reasons why the situation has changed. Most users are airdrop farmers who come to projects for the airdrop rather than long-term usage. Every month dozens of new projects appear, and because of the oversupply of tokens, capital simply does not have time to distribute among them. Investors more often prefer BTC, ETH, and large altcoins instead of new highly volatile tokens.
What should you do with the airdrop you received?
Given the current situation, the strategy of many market participants has changed. Previously it was popular to hold the token after the airdrop, but now many choose another model: selling the token at TGE or immediately after listing.
According to statistics, the reason is that most tokens fall in price, liquidity decreases, and the market weakens.
2025 became a difficult period for new crypto projects, and the beginning of 2026 turned out to be even harder. New tokens face several problems at the same time:
- mass selling after airdrops
- profit taking by funds
- weak market
- low demand for new assets
According to statistics, the average decline of tokens after TGE is about 30–35%, and in some cases reaches 80–90%. Therefore, at the current stage of the market, for many participants the most rational strategy becomes selling tokens at TGE while they still retain liquidity and value.
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